oaks

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Las Vegas - Never shotgunned a beer from the mouth of a catfish and probably NEVER will, but that's part of the CRAZY at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Home ice had been very good to the Predators all season, but they lost both games in Tennessee and fell into a 3-1 hole. They bounced back with a huge effort in Vancouver, posting a 3-2 win and should be able to even the series tonight. Gimme the Preds for the money.

Also gonna head to the Arch in St. Louis and drop some cash on the Cardinals. There are three Grays pitching this season so make sure you get Sonny in this matchup against the White Sox.

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Saddle up...It's Kentucky Derby weekend which means our horse guy, Martin Calia, is ready to cash some tickets...first up it's the Kentucky Oaks this afternoon...

It’s Friday at America’s Line which translates into Kentucky Oaks Day! The Oaks is Race 11 at Churchill Downs. Before we get into the race, I wanted to let Ecks & Bacon Nation know they can tune into a podcast on Spotify today and listen to my analysis of tomorrow's Kentucky Derby with Mountain West Mike on Bettor Buckets. As always you can look forward to my selections on tomorrow's Derby here on America’s Line.
So we have 3 year old fillies running a mile and an eighth in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. When I first looked at this talented field of 14 fillies, I thought at least seven horses could win this race. There is nobody particularly fast with the highest Beyer speed rating topping out at 95. So I looked at who ran the most consistent races and had a positive speed figure that increased after each race. Another angle is who are the trainers that have won this race in the past. We have DW Lukas who has been training a long time with 5 Oaks wins, followed by Todd Pletcher with 4 and Brad Cox with 2. So where did I land ? Nobody gets a horse ready for a big race like Todd Pletcher, but in this race, my money will be on top trainer Chad Brown. He trains #11 Ways and Means. The lightly raced filly has only run three times. She debuted last August at Saratoga and won her Maiden race with a very high Beyer speed figure of 90. Brown thought so much of that win that they placed her in the Grade 1 Spinaway, but she lost by a half length after clipping heels with another runner. She ended up chipping an ankle and didn’t return until she ran in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She was understandably short that first race back and gave up the lead in the deep stretch to finish second. Although she lost, she ran a topped out Thorograph (4) and equaled her Beyer speed rating of 90. If her workouts are any indication of how she is doing, her last work was a bullet 1 of 68 at 4 furlongs in 46.1. Although Brown thought it was a bit fast he said the track was fast that day. A tool I use in my handicapping relates to workouts and what horses have won on certain workout days. Well that last work of 46.1 was on April 26. On yesterday’s card, that work day produced three winners! Does it mean she will automatically win? No it doesn’t but it does give an indication that she is fit and will run her best. In this race, that’s what Ways and Means will need to beat this field. Brown says she’s the best filly he has ever trained and who are we to argue. And if you're a numbers handicapper, Brown is 23% second off a 180 layoff, 25% dirt trainer, 25% in route races, and 19% in graded stakes. He also picks up last years Churchill Downs leading riding Tyler Gaffalione to boot!

Let’s sizzle with a Benjamin Lee ( $100) across the board on #11 Ways and Means. In exactas, I want to bet a $5 exacta wheel #11 with all and a $5 box of numbers 2,4,11,14. In the Oaks/Derby daily double, lets wager $20 on #11 Ways and Means in the Oaks and #17 Fierceness in the Kentucky Derby. For saver doubles, let’s play $10 on numbers 2,4,14 in the Oaks with number 17 Fierceness in the Derby.

Good luck!

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