AFC Championship Game Betting Preview

The status of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains a major question as the Chiefs prepare to host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC championship game on Sunday.

With Mahomes listed as questionable due to a concussion or neck stinger, the Chiefs are 3-point home favorites at Bovada Sportsbook.

Chiefs favored by field goal over Bills in AFC title game

Mahomes was hurt last week in the Chiefs’ 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns as an 8-point favorite. By failing to cover the spread, the Chiefs dropped to 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games.

Kansas City was 7-2 straight up and 3-6 against the spread at home this season. That includes losing its last five games ATS. When listed as a home favorite, the Chiefs are 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games.

In the playoffs, the Chiefs have won four straight at 3-1 ATS. In their last 23 playoff games, they’re only 6-17 ATS, while at home in the playoffs, they’re 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.

Buffalo has been strong spread bet as road underdog

Buffalo advanced to the conference championship for the first time in 27 years by defeating the Baltimore Ravens 17-3 as a 2.5-point favorite last week. Buffalo has won eight straight at 7-1 ATS and is 9-1 ATS in the last 10. As a road underdog, the Bills are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10.

In the playoffs, the Bills have had a hard time on the road with five straight losses and a 1-4 ATS record. In their last nine road games in the playoffs, the Bills are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS. As a playoff underdog, the Bills have lost eight straight at 2-6 ATS.

Bills have won 4 of last 6 games in Kansas City

In Week 6, the Chiefs defeated the Bills 26-17 as a 5.5-point road favorite. Mahomes had a pair of touchdown passes in the win while Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is also an injury concern for Kansas City, rushed for 161 yards.

The Chiefs are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five against the Bills. However, the Bills are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Kansas City. In the last 10 matchups between the Bills and Chiefs, the visiting team is 8-2 ATS.