Grizzlies-Nuggets Preview

The Carmelo Anthony saga continues as the Denver Nuggets (32-25 SU, 24-30-3 ATS) get set to take on the surging Memphis Grizzlies (31-26 SU, 35-21-1 ATS) on Tuesday night at Pepsi Center (9 PM ET).

Rumor had Anthony dealt to the Knicks late Monday, but no official confirmation has emerged.

Carmelo himself has stated he’ll be in the in the Nuggets’ lineup on Tuesday, but anything beyond Thursday’s trade deadline is unlikely. As far as the matchup with the Grizzlies goes, at least bettors know Denver is with its best player and leading scorer.

Wading through all the conjecture that surrounded Anthony since he effectively forced trade talks back in the preseason, a few realities are obvious: First off, ‘Melo isn’t going to re-sign in Denver.

Secondly, Anthony’s first – and perhaps only – choice is the Knicks. Finally, and this one’s the kicker: It’s obvious the Nets’ package is preferred by the Nuggets’ brass over anything the Knickerbockers want to send to the Rocky Mountains.

That’s what’s causing this four-way game of chicken that will come to a head by Thursday. Carmelo wants to go to New York, and the Knicks know it, but Denver prefers getting Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, Ben Uzoh, Troy Murphy’s expiring contract, and four first-round draft picks for Anthony, Chauncey Billups, and others over Donnie Walsh’s Danilo Gallinari-Raymond Felton-Wilson Chandler “final offer” platter.

What is for sure is a potential/pending Anthony trade has little effect on NBA futures odds, if only because no bettor should be wagering on the Nuggets, Knicks, or Nets to win anything this season.

Longshot as it is, the only scenario involving Carmelo that would change the futures market is if he was shipped to Los Angeles to play with the Lakers. L.A. is currently listed as a -120 favorite to win the Western Conference, and as a +350 underdog behind Miami (+175) to win a third straight NBA title. If Anthony somehow ends up with the Lakers, all bets are off.

Looking at Denver’s matchup with Memphis on Tuesday night, bettors have to like the underdogs in this spot, even if the Grizz are without minutes leader Rudy Gay (partially separated left shoulder) for the next month.

Gay injured the shoulder in Memphis’ 102-91 win over Philadelphia last Tuesday, as the Grizzlies covered as 3-point home favorites to improve to 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
Memphis is quietly one of the sharpest spread wagers in the league this season, especially on the road, where it’s gone 20-10 against the number. The Grizzlies fell 108-107 to the Nuggets in Denver on December 5, but they walked away with the cash as 6-point pups.

Memphis is also fresh off a 116-108 victory over Denver on February 13 at FedExForum, when it covered as 3-point chalk behind 24 points and six rebounds off the bench from Darrell Arthur. The Grizz won the battle on the glass 41-29, and overcame a 17-point Nuggets lead with a 34-18 fourth quarter.

Gay added 23 points on 9 of 15 shooting for Memphis, but his absence on Tuesday shouldn’t hurt the Grizzlies’ offense. Memphis shot over 55% from the floor in the previous meeting, as Denver continued to display the porous defense that has it ranked 23rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency (107.2) and 25th in defense overall (105.2 PPG).

The Grizz are 5-2 ATS (2-5 SU) in their last seven meetings with the Nuggets, during which the teams are 6-1 O/U. Make sure to check back at OddsShark.com for the latest line and total for the game.