NFL Conference Championships Odds Preview

The road to the Super Bowl goes through New England and Philadelphia this weekend, starting in the AFC where the New England Patriots will host the Jacksonville Jaguars.

At Bovada Sportsbook, New England is a 9-point favorite. The Patriots blew past the Tennessee Titans 35-14 as 13-point chalk last week to advance to their seventh AFC title game in a row. In the past six, they are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS. Getting to play at home should be a benefit for the Patriots as they have won six straight at home overall both SU and ATS and in the postseason at home they’ve won seven straight SU at 6-1 ATS. Also worth noting, New England has never lost to Jacksonville at home, with a 7-0 record SU and 5-2 ATS in seven matchups.

The Jaguars were 7-point underdogs last week in their 45-42 upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. That was their third SU win this season as a road underdog. Getting another versus New England will be tough. Jacksonville has lost its last seven against the Pats and in 11 head-to-head games, the Jaguars are 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS.

In the NFC title game, the Philadelphia Eagles will entertain the Minnesota Vikings as a 3.5-point home underdog.

Last week Stefon Diggs’ miraculous last-second touchdown gave Minnesota a 29-24 win over the New Orleans Saints as a 5.5-point favorite. With that win the Vikings are 12-1 straight up and 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games. In the postseason they’re still a disappointing 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in their last seven, and their road record in the playoffs is dismal, at 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last seven.

The Eagles were a home underdog last week too, as they upset the Atlanta Falcons 15-10 as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia has been lethal at home this season with an 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS mark. The underdog odds may not be a concern to bettors, as the Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games as an underdog. Philadelphia is also 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight at home versus Minnesota.

Looking at overall championship game trends, the visiting team is 0-8 SU in the last eight games, and 0-5 ATS in the last five. The favorite has dominated lately at 7-1 SU in the last eight games, including going 3-1 ATS the last two seasons.