NFL Week 1 Betting Preview and Analysis
The New England Patriots will begin the new season without Tom Brady on the road against the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday. With Brady out and inexperienced Jimmy Garoppolo in his place the Patriots are a 6-point road underdog at online sportsbook Bovada.
New England hasn’t been an underdog by six points or more since 2010 when they lost to Houston 34-27 as a 7.5-point dog. Heading into Sunday’s game the Patriots are 3-5 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games, but in their last seven games as the underdog they’re an impressive 6-1 SU and ATS.
Arizona is 10-2 SU in their last 12 games, but only 5-7 ATS. They’re also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.
The biggest spread on the board in Week 1 is the Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks; at Bovada the Seahawks are a 10.5-point favorite.
The Dolphins finished last season 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Seattle was 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine. They also own a 7-2 record SU and 6-3 ATS mark in their last nine against Miami.
When Seattle has been favored by double digits in the past they’ve been a strong play for bettors. In their last 19 games when favored by at least 10 points the Seahawks are 18-1 SU and 12-6-1 ATS. When Miami is a 10-point underdog or more they are 2-9 SU and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games.
Division rivals get the season started on Sunday when the New York Giants visit the Dallas Cowboys. With Dallas missing Tony Romo and starting rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback the oddsmakers think this one is too close to call and have listed it as a pick’em.
Dallas is a solid 6-2 SU in their last eight versus the Giants, but only 4-4 ATS. At home the Cowboys have won three straight against New York while going 2-1 ATS. Prior to those three games the Giants had won four in a row in Dallas both SU and ATS.
For totals bettors the OVER has been a must when Dallas and New York meet up. The last seven matchups between the Cowboys and Giants have all gone OVER the posted total.