Super Bowl Betting Line Report

When it comes to NFL odds, the line for Super Bowl XLV is the sharpest.

Oddsmakers wasted little time posting the spread and total for February 6’s big game, setting the NFC Champion Green Bay Packers as 2.5-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Dallas.

Some books opened this line with Green Bay favored by a field goal, but early action has moved that number to 2.5 as of Monday afternoon. In all honesty, this spread could be much tighter. But with the public falling in love with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers after three straight playoff road wins (3-0 ATS), books are giving themselves a buffer for the next two weeks of wagering.

Green Bay does deserve to be the betting favorite. It’s made the most of what could have been a disastrous season, overcoming numerous injuries to key players to punch its ticket to the postseason with a win in Week 17. The sixth-seeded Packers are 13-6 with a 12-7 mark against the spread.

The Steelers are making their third appearance in the Super Bowl in the last six years. They were 4-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XL and 6.5-point chalk over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, winning both games but going 1-1 ATS. This year, Pittsburgh has covered in both its playoff outings, improving to 14-4 SU with a 12-6 ATS record.

These teams met last season, with the Steelers taking a 37-36 victory as 2.5-point home favorites in Week 15. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger set franchise records with 503 yards passing and three touchdowns, including a score to receiver Mike Wallace as time expired to give the Steelers a thrilling win. Rodgers was also good in that loss, passing for 383 yards and three scores while rushing for a touchdown.

That exciting game played over the 41.5-point total – which is four points less than the opening number for Super Bowl XLV. Early money on the total has moved it to 46 points at some books, with bettors expecting another shootout. However, both Green Bay and Pittsburgh have leaned on their defenses to get them to the Super Bowl.

The Packers, who are 7-12 over/under, have given up an average of just 17 points in the playoffs and have been clamping down on opposing passing attacks, holding rival quarterbacks to 57 percent completions for an average of 212.6 yards and a touchdown/interception count of 3 to 6.

The Steelers, who are 9-9 over/under, pride themselves on stuffing the run. They have allowed an average of only 21.5 points in their two playoff contests, budging for just 2.6 yards per carry and giving up only one rushing score while forcing four fumbles.