We are seven weeks away from opening night of the 2008-2009 NFL season and Las Vegas is already posting game one odds for all but one contest. The Brett Favre situation has them reluctant to post a number on the Monday night September 8th game between the Packers and Vikings although I did see Green Bay –2 ½ when I was visiting Sin City last month. I thought it might be fun to post the “current odds” for week one and then compare the numbers to the closing odds on game day. I will also give you my first gut reaction to these early-bird lines.

Favorite   Line      Dog            Totals
Giants     -4½     Redskins          40 ½
Ravens     PK     Bengals           42 ½
Jets         -3       Dolphins          35 ½
Pats      -15½     Chiefs            48
Steelers   -7       Texans            43 ½
Jaguars    -2½    Titans            37 ½
Lions       -1       Falcons           42 ½
Bills         -2       Seahawks          39
Saints      -3½    Bucs              43 ½
Eagles      -7      Rams              45
Cowboys    -3     Browns            49
Chargers    -10    Panthers          43 ½
Cards        -2½   49ers             41 ½
Colts         -9      Bears             44 ½
Broncos     -1     Raiders           41 ½

Now let’s look at three easy to follow Opening Day wagering angles:

1) Excluding the Super Bowl loser (Pats) teams who finished last season by going 3-1 or 4-0 are 29-17 (63%) against the number on opening day. This one is easy to explain. These squads have finished the previous season on a high note and are eager to prove themselves as being amongst the league’s elite. This year the Bengals (3-1), the Browns (3-1), the Packers (3-1), the Texans (3-1), the Colts (3-1), the Jaguars (3-1), the Eagles (3-1), the Chargers (4-0), the Titans (3-1) and the Redskins (3-1). With two of these teams opening against each other (Jags vs Titans) and with the Packers being off the board leaves us with the following suggested plays:

Bengals - Pick
Browns +3
Texans +7
Colts -9
Eagles -7
Chargers -10
Redskins +4 ½

2) Bet against both Super Bowl teams on opening day. This one has gone 15-8-1 (65%) against the number over the last twelve years. Super Bowl teams are sure to have a let down and their opponents are probably going to have a little extra incentive in this one. So following this trend your plays would be:

Chiefs +15
Redskins +4 ½

3) The third opening day trend involves overs and unders instead of sides. The boys in Las Vegas know that the general public tends to bet the overs more than the unders so therefore on opening day you can look for the total lines to be a little higher than they really should be. Since 1995 opening day totals of 44> have gone 37-20 (65%) in favor of the under. Remember when betting the under it is usually better to wager as close to kickoff as possible. You need to give the general public time to perhaps nudge the number up in your favor. If you buy into this theory then it appears you will have four opportunities this year;

Pats-Chiefs Under 48
Cowboys-Browns Under 49
Eagles-Rams Under 45
Colts-Bears Under 44 ½

Hopefully these few words have put you in the mood for some football. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.

Stat of the Day: Betting against the Super Bowl Champion on opening day the last 25 years you would have gone 15-10 (60%) against the spread.