Betting UNDER Big NFL Profits
If you have felt under the weather after your totals bets tanked during Conference Championship weekend, it’s probably because you bet UNDER.
Going UNDER the total has been great for business for Vegas sportsbooks the past five times we reached the AFC and NFC title game stage of the NFL playoffs.
In the past 10 games, only one game has gone under the total, according to the historical point spread database at OddsShark.com. That was the 21-12 Patriots win over the Chargers in January 2008, a game where the Pats failed to cover 14 points and foreshadowed their Super Bowl loss two weeks later (an outright loss to the Giants as 12.5-point chalk).
A 9-1 run favoring the OVER defies some age-old myths about NFL playoffs – that cold weather stifles scoring in January and that defense dominates when a shot at the Super Bowl is at stake.
“This year, much of the public opinion will focus on frosty Soldier Field and chilly Heinz Field and those tough defenses of the Bears and Steelers,” said football analyst Mike Pickett. “But that ignores the recent explosiveness of the Steelers and Jets and buys right back into the flawed logic that cost them money last year.”
Two of the past three meetings between the Steelers and Jets have played OVER, including the December battle here which crept OVER 36 points. One score prediction simulation model run by OddsShark.com projects this trend to continue with a 29-24 Steelers victory. That would also cover the 3.5-point spread at shops like 5Dimes.com.
Betting UNDER in a Packers Bears game has proven reliable in recent seasons as the last six meetings all went UNDER the number. That includes the Week 17 meeting where the Packers won 10-3, a game where the Bears struggled with motivation as they were guaranteed a first-round bye.
However, the Bears are 6-1 favoring the OVER in their past 7 games and 4-1 to the OVER in the past five games at Soldier Field. And if you can trust game simulation computers, the formula at OddsShark.com is predicting a 29-22 Packer win, which would be the sportsbook’s worst result – a favorite cover and an OVER play.
If you were wondering about point spread trends, we didn’t focus on it because there aren’t any. However, home teams have managed to win a lot SU, going 8-2 straight up in the past five Conference Championship weekends. And plenty of shops tracked by leading sportsbook review sites have fun props on both games featuring quarterback stats and more.