Interesting Week 1 NFL Betting Trends
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. Ah, if only Spanish philosopher George Santayana’s famous quote worked in other mysterious ways and remembering the past could help foretell the future. Guess that’s why he never became a professional sports handicapper.
If studying history guaranteed we knew the present, we might feel better about raiding the piggy bank and profiting from these wonderful Week 1 NFL trends. Instead, we study the numbers, see if there is any logical pattern underpinning the trends and act accordingly.
If the past guaranteed the future, you would:
Browns Going Down?
Take the Browns to lose as +3 underdogs in Tampa Bay and you would play under the total (37). Why? Because the Browns are a bankroll-depleting 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 season openers and the OVER has prevailed just twice during that span. However, you would sweat this game til the end, fearing the Bucs might buck the trend (Tampa is just 2-7 ATS in its past nine Week 1 matches). [ Get the matchup report and $100 Free Bonus here ]
Fade the Raiders
Pick the Titans to clobber the visiting Raiders as 6-point favorites and to build upon their 6-2 ATS mark in eight Week 1 matches recently. You would also play the game OVER the total of 40.5 at most shops tracked by OddsShark.com since the Raiders have played OVER in seven straight openers. [ Get more trends and full game previews here ]
Hail to the Chiefs
Be confused about the outcome of the Chiefs-Chargers game and expect a ‘push’ on the total of 45 (28-17 maybe).
Kansas City is a trend oxymoron with the OVER prevailing in seven of nine opening-season games, but the UNDER prevailing at a 7-1 clip in their past eight September home games. Hmmmmmmm. [ The best KC underdog odds will be here today ]
Fave Falcons>
Feel like a novice handicapper by doing what most recreational bettors do – bet the favorite and the OVER in the
Atlanta-Pittsburgh game. The Ben Roethlisberger-less (try saying that 10 times real fast) Steelers are 7-2 favoring the OVER in nine Week 1 games while the Falcons are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 openers. The wagering public has thrown money this week on Atlanta, moving the line from even to -2.5 for the birds, while betting the total from 41 to 37.5 (we suppose thee public isn’t convinced Dennis Dixon can generate much scoring in Ben’s place). [ Play the $100K Football Challenge every week – pick winners and pocket cash! ]
Bills Finish Off ‘Fins
Feel comfortable backing the Bills (5-0 ATS past five season openers) against the Dolphins (against-the-spread losers at a 1-5-1 clip since 2004). The wagering public doesn’t agree, as more money is on Miami than Buffalo.
More Week 1 Trends courtesy of the OddsShark.com searchable NFL stats database
Panthers (at Giants) - UNDER is 10-2-1 past 13 Week 1 games
Cowboys (at Redskins) - 10-3 ATS, 11-2 SU past 12 on road in September
Jaguars (home to Broncos) - 9-2 ATS past 11 Week 1 games
Vikes (at Saints) - 6-2 ATS past 8 Week 1 games
49ers (at Seahawks) - 5-1-1 ATS past 7 Week 1 games
Rams (home to Cardinals) - 1-9-1 ATS past 11 Week 1 games
Redskins (home to Cowboys) - UNDER is 6-1 past 7 Week 1 games