Super Bowl 53 Odds and Trends

For the third straight year and the ninth time during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, the New England Patriots are headed to the Super Bowl. It seems appropriate that they’ll be facing the Los Angeles Rams, the same team they defeated to get the whole era started in the first place.

The line on Super Bowl 53 opened with the Patriots listed as a 1.5-point favorite. Since the oddsmakers posted that line, the early money has caused it to move quickly. Now, you’ll find New England listed as a 3-point favorite at Bovada Sportsbook.

New England advanced to its third straight Super Bowl by defeating the Kansas City Chiefs 37-31 in overtime as a 3-point underdog in the AFC championship. That was the Patriots’ fourth straight win, during which they are 3-1 against the spread. In the playoffs, they’re now 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight.

The Rams also needed overtime in the NFC championship as they knocked off the New Orleans Saints 26-23 as a 3-point underdog. That was the first time this season the Rams were listed as an underdog, and in their last 15 as an underdog they’re 3-12 SU and 3-11-1 ATS. In the playoffs, the Rams are 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six as an underdog.

Underdog has won last six Super Bowls

The Rams have had a lot of success against the AFC lately, having won eight straight matchups against the conference while going 5-2-1 ATS. Against the AFC East in particular, though, it’s been a different story, as the Rams are 2-10 SU and 5-7 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC East opponents.

When the Rams and Patriots met up 17 years ago in Super Bowl 36, New England won 20-17 as a 14-point underdog. Including that game, New England has won five straight vs the Rams at 4-1 ATS. In the last 10 matchups between the Rams and Patriots, the favorite is 7-3 SU.

If the recent Super Bowl trends hold up, being listed as the underdog may work out for Los Angeles. The underdog has won the last six Super Bowls SU, including last year when the Philadelphia Eagles upset New England 41-33 as a 4.5-point underdog. During the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS in their eight Super Bowl appearances, which includes going 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS when favored.