brees vs. brady
Las Vegas - Not predicting an outright upset, but thinking about the Browns +10 points against the Chiefs. That's the number we bought, but apparently, the wise guys are flooding the market with Cleveland money, and the spread is now down to -9 and -8.5 at the Westgate here in Vegas.
First the spread stats. Looking at the Chiefs, they were 14-2 straight up and 6-9-1 against the spread. They were 3-5 ATS at home and 5-8-1 as a favorite. They went Over 8 times and Under 7 times with one push (4-4 to the Over at home).
The Browns are 12-5 straight up and 7-10 against the spread. They are 4-5 ATS on the road and 3-3 as an underdog. They went Over 10 times and Under 7 (5-4 to the Over away).
Totally understand that everyone is on Kaycee, and why not. They have the MAGICAL Patrick Mahomes at QB. And the RIDONKULOUS Andy Reid record, 18-3 regular season, 5-2 playoffs, after a bye. But, and there are a couple, Cleveland gets its head coach Kevin Stefanski back. And possibly, All-Pro OL Joel Bitonio. And if you're worrying about the Browns giving up 501 air yards to Ben Roethlisbrger last week, DON'T. The Brownies were up 35-10 at the half, played soft and took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. The other concern is the Chief's work in the second half of the season. Yes, they won seven of the last eight, but did not, DID NOT COVER A SPREAD, as in 0-7-1. Gonna roll with Cleveland and counting on The Baker to make my DOUGH/BANK ACCOUNT RISE!
Closing with the Saints -3 points over the Bucs. Checking on the Saints, they are 13-4 straight up and 10-6-1 against the spread. They are 5-3-1 ATS at home and 9-6 as a favorite. They went Over 10 times and Under 7 times (6-3 to the Over at home).
The Bucs are 12-5 straight up and 10-7 against the spread. They are 5-4 ATS on the road and 8-6 as a favorite. They went Over 10 times and Under 7 (6-3 to the Over away).
New Orleans has covered eight of the last nine with one push, and anytime you're talking about an 89% cover rate, you gotta pay attention. However, we're paying MORE attention to the two games that these NFC South rivals played this season. They opened the season in the Superdome, and the Saints (-4) posted a 34-23 win & cover. The shocker was the rematch down in Tampa, when New Orleans (+3) went to the Sunshine State and CRUSHED the Bucs, 38-3. OUCH! In those two games, the 42 year old outplayed the 43 year old, by a MILE. Brees, the youngster, completed 44 of 62 (71%), with SIX TDs and ZERO INTs. TB12, the older, completed 45 of 74 (61%), with just 2 TDs but FIVE INTs. There's just one thing left to say. This IS my BEST BET BAABBBEEE!!!