2023 NBA Finals Betting Preview

The NBA Finals will tip off on Thursday night with the Denver Nuggets playing host to the Miami Heat in Game 1 of the best-of-seven series.

At the Bovada Sportsbook the oddsmakers have listed the Nuggets as 8.5-point favorites for Game 1. Denver is also the series favorite, coming in at -400 to win its first NBA championship in franchise history. Miami is a +300 series underdog. As a No. 8 seed the Heat have been underdogs in every series so far during their playoff run.

The Nuggets have had a strong playoff run with a 12-3 record SU and a 9-6 mark against the spread in 15 games. That includes winning six straight with a 4-2 ATS record. At home the Nuggets have been unbeatable in the playoffs with a perfect 8-0 record SU, but it hasn’t led to guaranteed profits for bettors as they’re 5-3 ATS in that span.

Betting trends for the 2023 NBA Finals

When the Nuggets head on the road later in the series bettors should be aware they’re 4-3 SU and ATS on the road in the postseason. Looking back further, they’re 4-7 SU and 6-5 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.

Miami needed seven games to knock out the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. That leaves them with a 13-7 record SU and 14-6 mark ATS through the playoffs so far. On the road the Heat are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in the playoffs. They’ve been a good wager when listed as an underdog at 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS.

Bettors should keep an eye on the Heat when the series heads to Miami, as they’re 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games at home in the playoffs.

Nuggets took regular season matchup

During the regular season the Nuggets and Heats met up twice and Denver won both matchups SU and ATS. Overall, the Nuggets have won six straight versus Miami both SU and ATS, and in their last 10 against them they’re 9-1 SU and ATS.

At home versus the Heat the Nuggets are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven matchups. They have also won four straight in Miami both SU and ATS, and they’re 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Miami.

The early NBA Finals MVP odds come as no surprise with Denver’s Nikola Jokic a heavy favorite at -300, followed by Miami’s Jimmy Butler at +325. A few longer shots include Denver’s Jamal Murray at +900 and Miami’s Bam Adebayo at +2500.