AFC Championship Game Betting Preview
Bettors get a rematch in the AFC championship game this week as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Cincinnati Bengals for the second year in a row.
The betting line has already seen some movement at Bovada Sportsbook. The Chiefs originally opened as 2.5-point home favorites but are now 1.5-point underdogs. Depending on the status of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high-ankle sprain last week, the line could move even more before Sunday’s kickoff.
Chiefs now underdogs following Mahomes injury
The Chiefs will be playing in their fifth straight AFC championship game. They advanced with a 27-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars as a 9.5-point favorite last week. That was the Chiefs’ sixth straight win, during which they’re 2-4 against the spread. In their last 12 games, they’re 11-1 straight up and 5-7 ATS.
At home, the Chiefs have won six straight with a 3-3 ATS record. At home this season, they’re 8-1 SU and 3-6 ATS. As a home underdog, the Chiefs are 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS in their last 13. For totals bettors, they’ve been a strong UNDER bet at home with a 7-2 UNDER record in their last nine. Surprisingly, against opponents from the AFC, the Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14.
In the playoffs, the Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and have gone UNDER the posted total in five straight. At home in the playoffs, the Chiefs are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine.
Bengals have beaten Chiefs in 7 of last 8 games
Cincinnati made it back to the AFC championship game by downing the Buffalo Bills 27-10 as a 6-point underdog last week. That was the Bengals’ 10th straight win, during which they’re 7-3 ATS.
Playing on the road hasn’t bothered the Bengals lately as they’ve won five straight both SU and ATS away from home. They are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS on the road this season, and in their last 15 road games they’re 13-2 ATS. As a road favorite, they’re 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six.
In the playoffs, Cincinnati is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games, and three of those wins came as the favorite. As a playoff favorite, the Bengals are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last seven.
In last year’s AFC championship game, the Bengals defeated the Chiefs 27-24 as 7-point road underdogs. Cincinnati also defeated Kansas City 27-24 as a 2.5-point underdog earlier this season, giving the Bengals three straight wins against the Chiefs overall. The Bengals’ dominance over Kansas City stretches back further, as they’re 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the Chiefs.