MLB Most Home Runs Props Odds Preview

After running away with the MLB home run crown last year during a record-breaking season, can Aaron Judge deliver an encore and become the first repeat home run king in more than a decade?

Last year Judge hit an American League-record 62 home runs to easily lead the majors in that category. His closest challenger for the home run title was Kyle Schwarber, who was well back with 46 round-trippers. It should come as no surprise that Bovada Sportsbook has listed Judge as a +550 favorite to lead the major leagues in home runs again.

Despite a season for the ages last year, is Judge a safe bet? Before entering the record books last season, he hadn’t surpassed 50 home runs since 2017. In 2021, he swatted only 39 big flies.

Bautista was last player to repeat as home run champ

Injuries are also a concern for Judge as 2022 marked the first time since 2017 that he appeared in more than 150 games. If Judge were to repeat, he’d be the first player to lead the majors in home runs in back-to-back seasons since Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011.

Following Judge on the home runs props odds are Mike Trout at +750 and Pete Alonso at +900.

Trout has won multiple MVP awards but he has never led the majors — or even the AL — in home runs. Last season, Trout hit 40 homers, which was not far off the career-high 45 he hit in 2019. Injuries are also a concern with Trout, who was limited to 119 games last season and only 36 games in 2021.

Alonso has yet to duplicate monster rookie season

Alonso led the majors in home runs in 2019 when he went deep 53 times in his rookie year. That remains his career best; he slugged 40 homers last year.

Rounding out the top five on the home run odds are Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., all at +1200.

Schwarber’s 46 long balls last year were a career best and marked the first time he topped the 40-homer plateau. He hit leadoff for most of the season but is expected to hand those duties over to free-agent addition Trea Turner this year. Schwarber also will not have Bryce Harper’s bat behind him for protection during the first half of the season while the Phils’ superstar recovers from Tommy John surgery.

Alvarez offers good value to win crown if healthy

Alvarez clubbed 37 home runs last season and likely would have topped 40 easily if he hadn’t missed games due to injury. He appeared in 135 games last season and at only 25 years of age may be the best bet to unseat Judge this season if he can stay healthy.

Guerrero tied Sal Perez for the major-league lead in home runs in 2021 when they each hit 48. Guerrero had a down year by his lofty standards last season with only 32 homers. He’s even younger than Alvarez so a bounce-back over 40 homers is expected, although a knee injury that popped up in spring training may scare away some bettors.

The odds on a few other notable sluggers include Shohei Ohtani at +1800, Juan Soto at +2000, Ronald Acuna Jr. at +2000, Giancarlo Stanton at +2000 and Julio Rodriguez at +3000.