kaycee

Las Vegas - "Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championships." If you have not Googled it yet, that came from the legendary Bear Bryant. That was also like what, 100 years ago. Okay, maybe 50 or 60. You can BURY that old adage in a pile of used iPhones.

Don't believe me? Just call Dabo and ask him. Clemson came into the National Championship Game with the #1 D in the country. LSU had the #1 offense. It was NO FREAKIN' CONTEST, as Joe Burrow and the NUMBER ONE offense buried Clemson, 42-25. Of course that was a college game, but with a TRANSCENDENT quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, kinda like Joe Burreaux, the Chiefs are the LSU of the NFL. Still don't believe me. Tell it to LeBron James and the Cavaliers who were BROOMED by the Warriors in the 2018 NBA Finals, 4-0. A GSW team that was 11th on the defensive charts that season, but could shoot from 3-point range just a little bit.

Back to TRANSCENDENT and Patrick Mahomes. In 35 starts to begin his career, Mahomes is FIRST ALL TIME in passing TDs with 85, and second in yardage with 10,600. In the two playoff games leading up to Super Sunday, he hit on 46 of 70 for 615 yards and 8 TDs. Oh yea, he also gobbled up 106 rushing yards. And speaking of his rushing yardage, check this out. He ran for only 87 yards in his first eight games this season, then after coming back from an ankle and knee, he rumbled for 255 yards in the last eight. And, if you're sitting, check this out. The 49ers are 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to a QB. And did you know that the NFL has ONLY 32 teams, which does not make the Niners dead last in that category, but close enough for rock and roll!

Then we were lucky enough to get our hands on a 45 page masterpiece by Warren Sharp. You all know that I rarely, maybe NEVER, give out a recommendation to anyone that claims to hit 60% or better. But I've been following this guy for five years, at his website, sharpfootballanalysis.com, and he IS what he says, and WAY MORE. I have also been around some heavy hitting whales, that swear by SHARP! Hit me up on Twitter, @vegasvigorish, or Email, and I'll get you to Warren. Not for his pick, but a phenomenal break down of every aspect of the Super Bowl so you can make your own decision.

Sharp will charge a full Benjamin for his work, actually $99 if you're interested, but he has given me permission to pass along a few golden nuggets, starting with using 11 personnel in the Red Zone. What is 11 personnel? Simply, four receivers, three wideouts and one tight end on the line of scrimmage. Why bother with Red Zone analytics? Because this next sentence is STAGGERING! Kaycee is the #1 most successful offense in the NFL in 11 personnel in the Red Zone, while San Francisco was #32 defending 11 personnel in that same space. And as you know, the NFL has ONLY 32 teams, which would make the Niners, yea, DEAD FREAKIN' LAST!!!

Then we look at the 49ers defense, which is a magnificent unit, and can pressure opposing QBs like crazy, but the Niners defense in the Red Zone ranked #29 in sack rate.

If you're a numbers freak, you probably know that the 49ers D ranks #1 in 3rd down sack rate. Wonderful stat for sure, but you know which team ranks #1 in avoiding 3rd down sacks? You know where I'm going. It's the CHIEFS. And lemme leave you with this last gem revolving around 3rd down. You know that TRANSCENDENT guy, P. Mahomes, well, when Patrick scrambles on 3rd down, he has a 100% first down conversion rate. That would be ONE HUNDRED PERCENT!!!

Thinking Kaycee like maybe 37-27, but not gonna best bet this one. As you have seen throughout the week, my BEST BETS are scattered in the PROPALICIOUS department.

If you're out in VEGAS, yell at me. I'll be casino-hopping and would be happy to say hey. But if you can't join me, have a SUPER, profitable, and, SAFE Sunday.

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