finals 1

  • Thursday, June 6, 2024


Las Vegas - Finally! We have hoops. We have the NBA Finals. We have the Celtics and the Mavericks. We have Jayson Tatum & Jaylen Brown. We have Luka Doncic & Kyrie Irving. We also have the results of the two regular season games. The Celtics won both games against Dallas this season, but one victory came before the trade deadline and the other victory after the deadline. But it was not against the starting lineup that has posted a 27-6 record after the dust settled.

Here's a look at the regular season games. They started out down in Dallas on January 22 and Celtics (-2.5) posted a 119-110 victory. The Over/Under total was listed at 240.5 and went low. In the second game, at Boston, the Cs (-8.5) demolished the Mavericks 138-110. The Over/Under total was listed at 237.5 and went high. The Celtics put together the BEST home record in the NBA during the regular season at 37-4. They have won six of eight straight up at the TD Garden during the playoffs but covered just four of those eight. The Mavericks finished the regular season with a 25-16 record on the road. They have won six of eight straight up on the road in the playoffs with a 6-2 mark against the spread.

Okay, so how do we handle all these numbers? First we looked at Boston's road to the Finals. Yea, the Celtics are 12-2 so far in the playoffs with a seven game winning streak, but lets dig a little deeper. They beat the Heat in six games WITHOUT Jimmy Butler for the entire series. They beat the Cavaliers in five WITHOUT Donovan Mitchell for two games. Then they got out the broom and swept Indiana WITHOUT Tyrese Haliburton for games three and four. Props to Boston for getting the job done, but now they'll be fighting a Dallas team that's basically healthy, very balanced and very deep. And the Mavs have been MONEY as an underdog in the playoffs, covering five of six.

Gonna pass on the spread in game one until we get a read on both teams, so, how about taking an Uber to Prop City. We're looking at the Over/Under on made 3-point baskets. And since Boston attempts the most threes in the NBA, gonna drop some chips on Tatum Over 2.5 made threes, Brown Over 1.5 made threes and Derrick White Over 2.5 made threes.

One last Over/Under and it's a rebound prop. Looking at Daniel Gafford and going Over 5.5 boards. Gafford averaged 7.5 rebounds during the regular season and 6.9 against the T'wolves in the last round. Pencil in Daniel for seven boards and ink a plus into the Bank of Benj.

Of course you need some action on the MVP and we're gonna throw a handful of chips at Kyrie Irving listed at around 18/1.