horse and ice
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Las Vegas - Zac Gallen comes into the game tonight against the Tigers with a solid 5-2 overall record, but it's his work at home in Phoenix that has our attention. Gallen has started three times at Chase Field with a 3-0 mark and has allowed only 1 earned run over 17 innings for an INVISIBLE 0.53 ERA. Gimme the Snakes for the money.
On the ice tonight, gotta try the Oilers over the Canucks. This series is WAY too delicious and deserves a game seven. Edmonton has bounced back with a win in the playoffs after every loss (3-0). And with home ice, which will dictate all the matchups, and a SICK crowd, we expect that a trip back to Vancouver is just 60 minutes away.
U ready for the Preakness Stakes??? My horse guy Martin Calia IS...U have the floor Marty...
So now we move on to the second jewel in the Triple Crown...The Preakness Stakes. It’s been two weeks since Mystik Dan captured the Kentucky Derby and with the scratch of Bob Baffert trainee Muth, Dan is now the 5/2 favorite to win the Preakness. Since we have only eight entries I’ll give my opinion on each horse.
#1 Mugatu- only win in 12 starts was his maiden on the synthetic turf at Gulfstream Park November 2023. He gets the services of jockey Joe Bravo who was aboard for that win. At 20-1 morning line can’t recommend.
#2 Uncle Heavy- Robert Reid trainee is 3 for 5 lifetime and 2 for 2 on a wet track. Won the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct in February in the mud and shows a 47.1 work in the mud at Parks on May 1st. Gets top jock Irad Ortiz which is a big plus but this race will have to fall apart on the front end for him to win. With rain in the forecast a muddy track moves him way up but another 20-1 long shot that is just not fast enough for this group.
#3 Catching Freedom is 6-1 morning line. He finished a fast closing 4th in the Derby as he followed Mystik Dan up the rail in the stretch. After watching the Derby replay he had a little tougher trip than Dan did but still didn’t make up much ground on the winner like Sierra Leone and Forever Young both finishing second and third respectfully. One of three horses that wheels back in two weeks after running in the Derby. Since the field is down to eight he should be a lot closer today and has a powerful closing kick as witnessed in his win in the Louisiana Derby. He has a third place finish on an off track beaten by Sierra Leone in the Risen Star. Has beaten Tuscan Gold and Just Steel in the past and he is a serious win contender today as top jock Flavian Prat keeps the mount.
#4 - Muth- scratched
#5 - Mystik Dan is coming off a rail skimming trip to last by a nose over the fast closing Sierra Leone and Forever Young in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. The trainer/jockey combination of McPeek/ Hernandez sweep the Oaks/Derby double and are on fire. If he can get another ground saving trip he could be going up to Saratoga in pursuit of the Triple Crown. The good about Dan is that he is the only horse in the field to earn double digit Beyers in two races ( 100 and 101 ). One of those Beyers was on a wet track at Oaklawn the other in the Kentucky Derby. His thorograph number of 0 on a wet track is far superior to any other horse in the race. The bad is when Dan doesn’t save ground and has to rough it on the outside like he did in the Arkansas Derby and was beaten soundly by todays scratch Muth. Returning in a short two weeks might be troublesome and hopefully his run in the Derby didn’t empty the tank. Win contender.
#6 - Seize the Gray is 15-1 and trained by legend D Wayne Lukas. Seize is coming off a win in the G2 Pat Day Mile and this seems a bit ambiguous but he is in top form and has a win on an off track. Can’t see him winning but might get into the money.
#7 - Just Steel is 15/1 and he pressed the pace in the Derby and paid the price finishing 17th. He did run second to Muth in the Arkansas Derby and now gets a jockey change to Joel Rosario who rode him in his last win in November. Can’t recommend.
#8- Tuscan Gold- 8-1, the Chad Brown trainee is lightly raced with only three lifetime starts. He last ran on March 23rd in the Louisiana Derby iin which he finished third to #3 Catching Freedom. Brown has been known to send live horses to run in the Preakness but I can’t see him improving to beat several of these more experienced horses. Possible for a piece.
#9 - Imagination- 6-1, the other Bob Baffert trainee still in the race is a stablemate of Muth. The Into Mischief colt has never been worse than second in six career starts. And for handicappers who preach value this horses odds were never over 2-1, so if it’s value you want you’ll get it today. Baffert has won this race eight times and since he was denied entry into the Kentucky Derby again this year he could be taking his frustrations out today. The last two works both bullets at 6f at Santa Anita show he is ready and they were against his stablemate Muth who he might have outworked. He has the speed to take this field gate to wire .
The pick.
I’m going to tweak my betting style today. Still going to bet win money but I’ll box some exacts, trifectas, and superfectas.
So it is a Benjamin to win on #9 Imagination and a $5 exacta wheel 9 with all.
Let’s try a $1 trifecta and superfecta key 9 over 3,4.5,6,7.
And a $1 super and trifecta box 3,4,6,7,9.
Good luck!
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